The area of convection (invest 92W) previously located near 10.4N 139.2E is now located near 11.1N 138.2E, approximately 94 nm north of yap. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (EIR) depicts persistent deep convection with rain bands beginning to organize. It also shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC). The environment is favorable for development with warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c) and moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 kts), and good equatorward outflow aloft. Global deterministic models are in good agreement that 92W will intensify over the next 48 hours with GFS being the most intense. Global ensemble models are in agreement as well that 92W will continue to move westward and intensify over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and near Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.