The area of convection (invest 92W) previously located near 6.3n 146.0E is now located near 7.9n 145.1E, approximately 332 nm south of Guam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a broad and disorganized low-level circulation with flaring convection along the northern semicircle. Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment for development with fair poleward upper-level outflow, moderate to high easterly vertical wind shear (20 to 25 kts), and warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 c). Ecens is the most aggressive out of the ensemble models, however, the deterministic models are much more hesitant on the consolidation of 92W. Global models show 92W tracking generally northwestward over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.