Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor its progress.

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The area of convection (invest 95W) previously located near 12.0N 147.9E is now located near 12.7N 146.3E, approximately 103 nm east-southeast of Guam. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (EIR) depicts a disorganized low-level circulation center (LLCC) with fragmented formative banding. A 061108z ASCAT reveals a broad circulation with 20 knot winds over 90 nautical miles along the eastern periphery. Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good equatorward outflow aloft. Global deterministic models are in good agreement that 95W will develop to the north, and GFS indicates the most intense development over the next 48 hours. Global ensemble guidance has shown 95W moving northnorthwestward with both gefs and ECENS in fair agreement on development timeline over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

A trough of low pressure currently moving across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche during the day on Tuesday. The system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow development of this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche before it moves inland by the middle portion of this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of Guatemala remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development of this system later this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near or parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of the southern coast of Mexico through the end of the week.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.