The area of convection (invest 91S) previously located near 10.7S 117.4E is now located near 11.4S 118.9E, approximately 444 nm northwest of broome, Australia. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 212154z 89ghz mwi microwave image depict a partially exposed low level circulation center with displaced convection to the south of the circulation as well as deep curved convective banding along the northern periphery, environmental analysis reveals a highly favorable environment for development with strong westward upper-level outflow, low vertical wind shear (10 to 15 kts), and warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 c). Global models are in good agreement that the area of convection (91S) will steadily consolidate over the next 24 hours as it continues to track south-southeastward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded too high.see ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 220300) for further details.