A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week, and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.