The area of convection (invest 95W) previously located near 7.1n 140.7E is now located near 8.5n 140.7E, approximately 164 nm east-southeast of Yap. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts broad turning with disorganized convection. Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment for development with moderate poleward upper-level outflow, low to moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 kts), and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c). Global ensemble models are hesitant in the formation of 95W with individual ensemble members being scattered. The deterministic models are similarly scattered with GFS being the most aggressive in terms of development. Models generally agree on the system maintaining an elongated wind field as it tracks near the marianas islands over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.