The area of convection (invest 99S) previously located near 10.8S 75.0E is now located near 11.1S 74.5E, approximately 260 nm south-southeast of diego garcia. The area of convection (invest 99S) previously located 10.8S 75.0E is now located near 11.1S 74.5E, approximately 260 nm south-southeastward of diego garcia. Enhanced infrared (EIR) satellite imagery depicts 99S as a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with stronger convection building near the center. Within the last 24 hours, the strongest turning is near the southeastward side of the LLCC based on earlier scatterometer data. Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (15 knots or less), good poleward upper-level outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c). Global and ensemble models are in agreement with swift development and a steady southwestward track within the next 24 hours. The 011200z position has been reassessed to be 35nm to the northeast of the position in ref a, revealed by 011235z wsfm microwave imagery.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 011730) for further details.