A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The area of convection (invest 95S) previously located near 1.1s 95.6E is now located near 1.0s 94.7E, approximately 686 nm north-northwest of the cocos islands. Animated multispectral imagery (MSI) depicts a poorly organized, broad circulation, with a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) embedded within the northern portion of the larger rotation. Deep convection can be seen flaring up near the LLCC, as well as across the southern side of the circulation. An ASCAT-B 200230z pass reveals a small, but well-defined, symmetrical LLCC with 25 knot winds wrapping around the majority of the circulation, with the highest winds present in the northeastern sector, trapped along the island offshore of western sumatra. Environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions for development with moderate to high vertical wind (20-25 knots), strong diffluent poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c). Global models are in fair agreement that invest 95S will continue to have general steady development with a curving south to southwestern track within the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

A surface trough located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of the system is possible, and a tropical depression could form in a few days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining off the coast of Mexico.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.