The area of convection (invest 96W) previously located near 5.8nn 148.6E is now located near 5.4n 146.2E, approximately 478 nm south of Guam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery as well as a 130433 GMI 89ghz microwave image depict a poorly organized broad area of turning with weak flaring convection along the southern periphery. Environmental analysis for this area is moderately favorable for development with very warm (30-31 c) sea surface temperatures, moderate poleward outflow, and low (5-10 kts) vertical wind shear. Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement that the area of convection (96W) will develop along a north-westward track with gradual intensification over time, with the exception of ECMWF which lacks development until the system approaches the northern tip of Luzon.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

A broad trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Little development is expected during the next few days while the system meanders well offshore. Towards the end of the work week, environmental conditions appear more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while the system drifts northward then northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.