The area of convection (invest 94S) previously located near 9.3s 54.9E is now located near 9.9s 54.7E, approximately 320 nm south of seychelles. Enhanced infrared imagery depicts a developing but elongated low-level circulation embedded in the monsoon trough, obscured by flaring convection. A 121416z wsf-m microwave pass revealed a mostly linear convective structure along the northern periphery of the trough axis. Environmental analysis reveals moderately favorable conditions for development of a tropical cyclone with moderate vertical wind shear (15 to 20 kts), warm sea surface temperatures (28 to 29 degrees celsius), and good equatorward outflow. Global deterministic models have decreased the projected peak intensity compared to 24 hours ago, with the exception of navgem. However, global models generally agree on some development over the next 48 hours prior to the encroachment of a dry air mass from the south and west. The ECMWF, GFS, and google deepmind ensemble systems continue to agree on a modest chance of tropical cyclone development. Models also agree on a generally southeasterly track of 94S over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.