The area of convection (invest 97W) previously located near 24.4N 123.4E is now located near 22.9N 123.1E, approximately 156 nm east of kaohsiung, Taiwan. Animated enhanced multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) depicts a partially-exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) to the southwest of a patch of persistent, flaring convection. A 220108 ASCAT MetOp-C shows a compact low level circulation positioned just to the east of gale force winds associated with a cold surge to the west and extensive 15-20 kt winds wrapping along the eastern periphery. Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions for development with warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c) and good equatorward outflow aloft offset by high vertical wind shear (25-30 kts). Global models depict 97W potentially developing as a distinct, but short lived, tropical depression separate from the cold surge flow over the next two days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

The area of convection (invest 95S) previously located near 4.6s 97.6E is now located near 6.3s 94.5E, approximately 377 nm north-northwest of the cocos islands. Animated enhanced infrared imagery (EIR) and a 211508z metop-b ASCAT pass depict a broad and slowly consolidating circulation with associated deep convection near the low-level circulation center and over the southwestern periphery. Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development with low to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear (15-20 kts), radial outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c). Global deterministic models have a traceable circulation but are not showing much development over the next 24-48 hours as the system tracks west-southwestward. However, the number of gefs and ec-ens ensemble model members reaching warning thresholds within the next 1-2 days has increased a bit in recent runs.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

An area of convection (invest 92A) has persisted near 8.7n 67.8E, approximately 684 nm south-southwest of mumbai, India. Animated enhanced infrared imagery (EIR) and a 211654z metop-b ASCAT pass depict a broad and poorly organized circulation embedded within flaring convection in the northwestern periphery. Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions, with warm (28-29 c) sea surface temperatures and westward and poleward outflow aloft offset by moderate to high (20-25 kts) easterly vertical wind shear. Global deterministic models show a very slow and gradual development over time, with the navgem solution the most distinct and fastest. Ensemble models are in general agreement regarding a gradual build in the wind speed up to 35 kts over the next several days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 22 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.