The area of convection (invest 95W) previously located near 10.0N 139.7E is now located near 11.2N 137.1E, approximately 119 nm north-northwest of Yap. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 092354z MetOp-C ASCAT pass depict an elongated low-level circulation embedded in flaring convection with swaths of elevated winds along the eastern and northwestern peripheries. The circulation is considered too ill-defined to justify issuance of warnings at this time. Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment for development with moderate poleward upper level outflow aloft, moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 kts), and warm sea surface temperatures (28-29 c). Deterministic and ensemble models agree on some degree of consolidation over the next 24 hours prior to vertical shear becoming less favorable for development in 24 to 48 hours. Models also agree on a gradual transit northeastward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the southeast of the marianas during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. See ref a (wtpn21 pgtw 100300) for further details.