The area of convection (invest 92W) previously located near 10.4N 154.4E is now located near 11.7N 151.6E, approximately 417 nm east-southeast of Guam. Animated enhanced multispectral satellite imagery (EIR) depicts broad cyclonic turning associated with invest 92W, accompanied by intermittent flaring convection. The system remains poorly organized, with an ill-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC) that may instead represent the cusp of a low-level wave. Environmental analysis for the area indicates conditions favorable for development, with low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), moderate poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 c). As the system is currently weak and disorganized, the pace of development will likely be slow in the near term. Deterministic models are consistent with this assessment, showing very gradual development over the next 48 hours, and are split on whether a tropical cyclone will form by that time. Global models agree on a generally west-northwestward track, taking the system into the vicinity of the southern mariana islands. The exact track will depend on where a well-defined LLCC ultimately consolidates.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.