Recent satellite wind data and surface observations indicate the tropical wave currently crossing the Windward Islands still lacks a closed circulation. However both radar and satellite images indicate the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show signs of organization. The system is still moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, which could limit development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable as it slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by the middle of this week. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week in the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands through Monday morning.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

A surface trough located a couple hundred miles offshore of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.